'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, condemning attacks on critical infrastructure in West Asia and emphasising the importance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and ensuring secure shipping lanes.
Former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed advocates for building democratic institutions over military intervention in resolving international conflicts, particularly in the context of the escalating West Asia crisis. He also discusses the impact of the conflict on the Maldives' tourism-dependent economy and calls for a stronger, more understanding India in the Indian Ocean Region.
Trump has made it clear: the US will not lift its blockade of Iranian ports until a deal is signed.
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
On Saturday, it was reported that a drone strike had targeted the Fujairah Port in the UAE, triggering a fire.
The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has reviewed the evolving situation in West Asia, directing departments to assist Indian nationals affected by recent developments and emphasizing the need for dialogue and diplomacy.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with leaders from Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar, expressing concern over attacks in West Asia and discussing the safety of the Indian community.
Sonia Gandhi has criticised the Modi government's silence on the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, arguing it raises doubts about India's foreign policy direction and credibility.
An Indian-flagged crude tanker safely departed from the UAE's Fujairah after loading oil, despite an attack on the oil terminal. The Indian government is closely monitoring the situation in West Asia to ensure stable fuel supplies and maritime safety.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi conveyed to Russian President Vladimir Putin that India is on the side of peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the need for dialogue and diplomacy to end the conflict.
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Pakistan has backed China's claim that Beijing played a role in defusing tension with India during Operation Sindoor, calling it 'diplomacy for peace' that was part of international efforts.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
A Palau-flagged oil tanker with 15 Indian crew members was attacked off the coast of Oman, resulting in injuries. The incident occurred amidst rising tensions in the Middle East following attacks between Iran, the US, and Israel.
The question is whether the clocks allow enough time for two deeply mistrustful sides to get there, and whether the surface calm holds long enough for the paddling to produce something before the ceasefire ends on April 22, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff on Delhi, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.
'As one former Indian diplomat put it to me, Delhi has access to the White House, but Islamabad has access to Mar-a-Lago.'
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
Two Indian ships carrying liquified petroleum gas (LPG) from the Gulf countries crossed the Strait of Hormuz early on Saturday morning, raising the number of Indian vessels safely passing through the war-hit, narrow shipping lane to three.
India has called for a ceasefire, release of all hostages, and peaceful resolution of the Israel-Hamas conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. The Centre informed Parliament that India welcomed the agreement on the first phase of the Gaza Peace Plan. The article also covers India's energy sourcing strategy and the release of Indian fishermen by Pakistan.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
The ceasefire is still technically holding, to the extent that no overt hostilities have been reported yet, but the rhetoric has hardened dangerously. The week ahead will also clarify whether the Islamabad failure was a negotiating tactic or whether Washington has genuinely locked itself into a position from which the only exits are climb-down, escalation, or the slow bleed of a new status quo that nobody chose and nobody controls. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation. The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
India has wrapped up its operation at a strategic air base in Tajikistan's Ayni following the lapse of a bilateral agreement, people familiar with the matter said this week.
In the Indo-Pacific's new era -- where perception shapes reality faster than treaties -- the real entrapment is not of China or the United States. It is the test Japan has set for itself -- and whether partners like India, acting as balancers rather than accelerants, can help ensure that the story ends in stability, points out Varun Arya.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
India and Israel share a deep historical bond, and Prime Minister Modi's visit to the Knesset marked a bold shift from past diplomatic hesitation to open strategic partnership.
If Xi Jinping can establish control over the PLA Ground Force, relations between India and China will settle down to an even keel. The next few weeks will show whether Xi has finally succeeded in gaining control over the PLA Ground Force. That could bring about the substantive shift in India-China relations that both our leaders have been working for, observes Ambassador Prabhat Shukla.
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
'The entire US ecosystem built over decades at the bases in the Gulf region, especially the UAE, costing trillions of dollars have been decimated, dealing a mortal blow to the US Central Command's war capability,' points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Iran launched retaliatory military strikes targeting Israel and American military bases across the region, including in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
